Weather correction (Sitegeist)
RedKarpet is always amused to see the annual glut of media stories that combine the British preoccupation with weather and the start of the festival season. This month a number of titles, led by the NME, cited a prominent research scientist's work to -incorrectly- pronounce a weather-doomed June. Sat Bal invited Dr Craig Wallace to set the record straight. (12 June'09)
Earlier today Glastonbury Festival production stalwart Dick Tee took personal command of the complex organisation of the Pyramid stage at the Worthy Farm festival site. Along with his team from That's Enteetainment, he's working to ensure that all runs smoothly for Glastonbury's 24th June unveiling.
While
Glastonbury and rain have become synonymous over the years Mr Tee would
probably have to rethink his production strategy if the current
stories, predicting a monsoon for the festival, are to be believed.
Yes, a monsoon for Glastonbury!
"The concept of a sudden deluge of monsoon-like rain and the notion we can predict far in advance the severity of bad weather in June, as some reports imply, is wrong."
(Below) Dr Craig Wallace charts weather progress
Thankfully,
the science underlying some of the media stories seems to have been
misinterpreted. That science has been attributed to Dr Craig Wallace of
the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) in Southampton whose expertise
involves the rigorous study of weather pattern computer models.
So,
how did his research become summer events scare story material? Well,
firstly the research cited is several years out of date.
"‘The scientific evidence points to an underlying signal in the UK’s weather patterns during June which does indicate a tendency for unsettled conditions around this time in most years," he says. "In a typical year this can often follow a settled period during May. But the concept of a sudden deluge of monsoon-like rain and the notion we can predict far in advance the severity of bad weather in June, as some reports imply, is wrong."
(Below) Brit festival frolics
He
also adds that the study does not offer a stronger predictive
capability than that provided by the Met. Office and was based on
30-year historical data from which the underlying June 'signal' was
detected.
"In fact we did test the class of weather forecast models used by the UK Met. Office to see if this feature was represented in these - and it is.
"So,
if there is a likelihood that conditions will be especially worse than
normal, in a particular June, this will become apparent as the
conventional 5-day forecasts unfold. At some point a long-range
predictive capability might be devised but this certainly hasn’t
happened yet."
The message to summer event organisers? June might not herald an Indian summer but neither does it signal Indian monsoons.
Indeed, beyond this laptop screen is a blue-sky vista and the most distracting sunshine today - and it's Friday. Early lunch, anyone?
RK
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